Regardless of what you’ll have heard, Individuals are nonetheless touring … and plan on spending extra on journey. That is the phrase from the newest spherical of polling performed by The Harris Ballot for TPG.
After warnings of softening demand from airways like American Airways, Delta Air Traces and Southwest Airways, we questioned if the bullish journey sentiment we discovered earlier this yr would maintain up in our most up-to-date polling. It did.
Typical knowledge would maintain that journey is likely one of the first issues to get lower throughout financial downturns as a result of it is a discretionary expense. However the numbers to date do not bear that out. As my colleague Sean Cudahy reported, in each March and April, the Transportation Safety Administration screened virtually as many passengers because it did throughout these months of 2024.
Nonetheless, there are some warning indicators on the horizon in the case of journey sentiment, together with the truth that most Individuals say present financial situations have them rethinking their journey plans in some type or trend.
Most Individuals are planning to journey the identical or greater than final yr
Our new survey discovered that greater than three in 4 Individuals plan to journey in 2025, which is nearly equivalent to their journey plans captured earlier within the yr. We additionally discovered that about one-third of Individuals intend to journey extra and/or improve their spending on journey, suggesting there may be nonetheless a strong curiosity in journey regardless of the present financial and political atmosphere.
The brand new TPG/Harris Ballot survey discovered:
- Greater than three in 4 Individuals (77%) plan to journey in 2025 (according to February’s outcomes of 76%).
- Seven in 10 Individuals (70%) intend to journey domestically, and 28% plan to journey internationally.
- Roughly one in three Individuals (32%) plan to journey extra in 2025 than they did final yr (just like February’s outcomes of 35%), whereas 42% plan to journey about the identical and simply 9% count on to journey lower than in 2024.
- About one in three Individuals (34%) plan to spend extra on journey in 2025 than they did final yr, whereas 37% will spend about the identical and simply 10% say they may spend much less on journey this yr.
Total, the TPG/Harris Ballot survey suggests males are extra doubtless than girls to plan journey this yr (80% versus 73%) and to say they plan to spend extra on journey than final yr (41% versus 27%).
There are some warning indicators on traveler sentiment
Nevertheless it’s not all excellent news in the case of traveler sentiment — there are some clouds on the horizon.
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About one in 10 Individuals say they may journey much less (9%) or spend much less on journey than they did final yr (10%). Why? Amongst those that are lowering their spending, monetary considerations high the record, with 61% citing funds.
Different causes amongst those that plan to journey much less or spend much less on journey this yr:
- They traveled extra final yr than they normally do: 16%
- Security considerations, akin to crime and political unrest: 14%
- Well being causes: 14%
- Private circumstances: 11%
- Climate considerations: 8%
- Work obligations: 8%
- Different causes: 15%
In accordance with the survey knowledge compiled by The Harris Ballot, “The present financial scenario, together with tariffs and inflation, has influenced the journey plans of greater than half of Individuals this yr.”
Associated: Must know: The 6 high journey tendencies for 2025
Greater than half of Individuals say they may cut back their journey frequency or shorten their journey durations resulting from financial considerations. Others have thought of, or are contemplating, suspending or canceling their journey plans altogether or altering their locations.
- Greater than half of Individuals (52%) say the present financial system (e.g., tariffs, inflation/larger costs, and many others.) has affected their journey plans this yr.
- About one in 5 Individuals have/will journey lower than beforehand deliberate (20%) or have/will shorten the length of their journeys (19%) because of the present financial system.
- About one in seven Individuals say they’ve postponed or canceled journey plans or will accomplish that (14%), and the identical proportion have modified their journey locations because of the present financial system.
- Roughly one in 4 vacationers have traveled/will journey lower than beforehand deliberate (26%) or have shortened/will shorten the length of their journeys (25%) because of the present financial system.
US overseas coverage is having an influence
A shifting U.S. overseas coverage image can also be affecting journey plans for Individuals. Practically one in three Individuals report that shifts in U.S. overseas coverage have affected their worldwide journey plans, with 16% contemplating suspending or canceling worldwide journey (or having already achieved so).
- Three in 10 Individuals (30%) point out that altering U.S. overseas coverage has affected their worldwide journey plans this yr.
- Practically one in eight Individuals (16%) say they’ve postponed or canceled/will postpone or cancel worldwide journey plans.
- About 7% say they’ve modified/will change their worldwide locations, have shortened/will shorten the length of worldwide journeys or have traveled/will journey internationally lower than beforehand deliberate.
Amongst these truly planning to journey overseas, the numbers are steeper: Greater than half really feel impacted by overseas coverage adjustments.
- Greater than half (58%) of worldwide vacationers (i.e., those that plan to journey internationally in 2025) say that altering U.S. overseas coverage has affected their worldwide journey plans this yr.
- About one in 4 worldwide vacationers say they’ve modified/will change their worldwide journey locations (25%), have shortened/will shorten the length of their worldwide journeys (24%) or anticipate doing/will do much less worldwide journey than beforehand deliberate (24%) resulting from altering U.S. overseas coverage.
- Roughly one in 5 worldwide vacationers (22%) say they’ve postponed or canceled/will postpone or cancel worldwide journey plans because of the altering U.S. overseas coverage.
Why any slowdown in journey bookings could possibly be excellent news for costs
Regardless of journey sentiment holding up in our findings, actual demand has certainly fallen for flights to date in 2025. However that is not essentially dangerous information from a passenger’s standpoint. In truth, when you’re one of many 32% of Individuals who plan to journey extra this yr, this might work to your benefit.
A latest report from journey knowledge firm OAG suggests airways are nonetheless including capability (extra flights) throughout the U.S. and to locations like Europe.
“Regardless of a backdrop of provide chain issues and a few financial uncertainty, complete airline capability (each home and worldwide) in North America is up 2% this summer time vs summer time 2024,” the report says.
In accordance with Cirium, one other aviation knowledge firm, the variety of seats to Europe from the U.S. this summer time is up 3.9% yr over yr.
Certainly, we’re already seeing loads of deal alerts for flights to Europe this summer time for below $500. Only one instance? This 30% off sale from the low cost provider Play has flights from U.S. gateways for as little as $326 round-trip. Or, how about an American Airways flight in enterprise class from Chicago to London for simply 55,000 Alaska Airways Mileage Plan miles?
If we actually see a sustained discount in demand, offers like that would change into much more plentiful.
Associated studying:
Survey methodology: This survey was performed on-line inside america by The Harris Ballot on behalf of The Factors Man from Might 15 to 19, 2025, amongst 2,077 adults ages 18-plus. The sampling precision of Harris on-line polls is measured through the use of a Bayesian credible interval. For this research, the pattern knowledge is correct to inside plus or minus 2.5 proportion factors utilizing a 95% confidence degree.
